Ground transportation across Mexico, the United States, and Canada is currently operating in a paradox: trade volumes—especially cross-border manufacturing flows—remain resilient or growing, while trucking capacity is tightening due to financial stress, regulatory enforcement, and structural labor constraints. The result is a more volatile and less elastic freight system across North America. While freight demand remains relatively stable, the industry is being reshaped by three converging forces:

• Carrier exits and bankruptcies accelerating capacity loss
• Regulatory and compliance tightening across borders
• Uneven trade flows between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada

North American Freight by the Numbers

Cross-Border Freight Markets Enter a New Phase

The North American trucking industry is entering a period of significant transformation. While freight demand between the United States, Mexico, and Canada remains resilient, a combination of stricter regulatory enforcement, carrier bankruptcies, rising operating costs, and shrinking driver pools is reshaping transportation capacity across the continent.

Recent developments suggest that the industry is moving away from the excess capacity conditions that characterized much of the past two years. Instead, carriers, shippers, and logistics providers are facing a market increasingly defined by compliance requirements, financial pressures, and structural supply constraints.

U.S.-Mexico Capacity Tightens as Enforcement Intensifies

The most immediate disruption is occurring along the U.S.-Mexico border.

In recent weeks, stricter enforcement of existing regulations governing B-1 visas, English language proficiency requirements, and cabotage restrictions has significantly reduced the number of Mexican drivers operating in cross-border markets.

Although these regulations are not new, their more consistent enforcement has reportedly sidelined thousands of drivers throughout key border regions. The impact was amplified by Roadcheck Week inspections, creating a sudden tightening of available truck capacity.

Many carriers report that some drivers are now avoiding U.S. crossings altogether due to concerns about inspections, visa violations, or potential revocations. Instead, they are focusing exclusively on domestic freight movements within Mexico.

The result has been:

• Rising load-to-truck ratios across major border markets
• Increased tender rejections
• Freight backlogs at border crossings
• Higher spot market volatility
• Stronger pricing pressure on northbound shipments

While some congestion is expected to ease during the summer, industry observers believe the reduction in driver availability could become a long-term structural challenge rather than a temporary disruption.

Financial Stress Continues to Remove Capacity

At the same time that regulatory enforcement is reducing driver availability, financial pressures continue forcing carriers out of the market.

Recent bankruptcy filings include several trucking and transportation-related businesses across the United States, highlighting the fragile state of the freight economy.

Among the most notable closures was Triple RRR Carriers, a Laredo-based cross-border trucking company operating 177 trucks and employing 286 drivers. The company filed for Chapter 7 liquidation, removing a significant amount of capacity from a strategically important border market.

Additional bankruptcies included:

• GLS Materials and Trucking (Texas)
• Ruezga Hauling (California)
• ZDM Transport (Illinois)
• Circle D Truck Sales and Repair (Texas)

Meanwhile, layoffs have spread throughout the broader logistics sector. Companies including Expeditors, DHL Supply Chain, Alan Ritchey, GXO Logistics, FedEx, and American Expediting Logistics announced workforce reductions affecting hundreds of employees.

These developments underscore a critical industry trend: capacity is being removed not only through regulatory enforcement but also through financial attrition.

Rising Costs Continue to Pressure Carriers

Carrier economics remain challenging throughout North America.

In Mexico, diesel prices continue to hover between 28 and 29 pesos per liter, maintaining pressure on operating margins. At the same time, the Mexican peso has appreciated significantly against the U.S. dollar, strengthening from approximately 19.2 MXN/USD a year ago to around 17.3 MXN/USD.

For carriers earning revenue in U.S. dollars but paying expenses in pesos, this represents a substantial reduction in effective revenue when converted back into local currency.

As a result, many carriers are pursuing rate increases simply to maintain profitability rather than expand margins.

In Canada and the United States, elevated fuel costs, insurance premiums, maintenance expenses, financing costs, and regulatory compliance requirements continue to weigh heavily on small and mid-sized fleets.

The combined effect is a trucking market where operating costs remain elevated even as many carriers continue to struggle with profitability.

Trade Growth Remains a Bright Spot

Despite these challenges, North American trade continues to generate substantial freight demand.

According to the latest transborder freight data, freight moved between the United States, Canada, and Mexico totaled approximately $1.6 trillion in 2025.

Trade with Mexico reached $872.8 billion, increasing 3.9% year-over-year, while trade with Canada totaled $712.8 billion.

Trucking remains the dominant mode of transportation:

• 73.6% of U.S.-Mexico freight moves by truck
• 55.7% of U.S.-Canada freight moves by truck

Cross-border freight flows continue to account for nearly 30% of total U.S. international trade.

The data also reinforces a longer-term trend that has accelerated over the past decade: Mexico has become the dominant trucking trade partner of the United States.

Truck freight between the U.S. and Mexico now exceeds truck freight with Canada by roughly 50%, reflecting ongoing nearshoring investments and the continued relocation of manufacturing operations closer to North American consumers.

Electronics and Advanced Manufacturing Drive Growth

Mexico’s export growth remains heavily concentrated in manufacturing sectors.

Recent trade data shows:

• Manufacturing exports increased 34%
• Electrical and electronic equipment exports rose 15.9%
• Automotive exports increased 8.2%
• Intermediate goods imports rose 29.8%

These figures indicate that advanced manufacturing, electronics, computers, semiconductors, and automotive supply chains continue to fuel cross-border freight demand.

Importantly, the growth in intermediate goods suggests manufacturing activity will likely remain strong in the coming months, supporting future northbound freight volumes.

Canada Faces Different Challenges

While U.S.-Mexico markets are experiencing immediate tightening, the U.S.-Canada freight market presents a different picture.

Demand has returned to more typical seasonal patterns following Memorial Day and Roadcheck Week surges. However, beneath the surface, the supply side is becoming increasingly fragile.

Canadian trucking employment has declined for several consecutive months, while ongoing financial pressure continues pushing smaller carriers out of the market.

The result is a market that appears balanced today but possesses significantly less flexibility than in previous years.

With fewer available drivers and carriers, future disruptions—whether weather-related, regulatory, or demand-driven—could trigger much faster capacity tightening than historically experienced.

What Shippers Should Expect Through the Second Half of 2026

Several key trends are likely to shape the remainder of the year:

1. Stronger Pricing Environment

Reduced carrier availability and rising operating costs are creating upward pressure on transportation rates, particularly on U.S.-Mexico lanes.

2. Increased Compliance Requirements

Shippers should expect stricter scrutiny of cross-border operations as enforcement efforts continue.

3. Greater Carrier Selectivity

With fewer available trucks, carriers are becoming more selective about freight, prioritizing profitable and operationally efficient loads.

4. Continued Growth in Manufacturing Freight

Electronics, automotive, and advanced manufacturing sectors are expected to remain major freight drivers as nearshoring investments continue.

5. More Market Volatility

A smaller carrier base means disruptions can create faster and more severe capacity swings than in recent years.