Mexico and the United States face renewed supply chain cost pressures as global trade uncertainty intensifies.

Kearney has published its Supply Chain Navigator | 2026 Q4, a briefing examining global supply chain cost developments, economic indicators, market sentiment, and geopolitical risks, with an outlook extending to the second quarter of 2027.

The report, developed by Kearney Foresight and its Supply Chain Institute, combines economic and operational data with sentiment and risk indicators to provide a broader perspective on the forces shaping supply chain costs.

Its central finding is that global supply chain costs are expected to increase by 2.7% by Q2 2027 under the baseline scenario. However, when energy and logistics risks are incorporated, the increase could reach 6.7%.

For companies operating across North America, the findings highlight the importance of monitoring changing input costs, international trade flows, freight markets, and geopolitical exposure when planning their supply chain operations.

Global supply chain costs: An increasingly uncertain outlook

According to Kearney, global supply chain costs increased by 2.3% in Q1 2026 alone. The report identifies rising energy and freight costs as important contributors to this trend.

During the quarter:

• Energy costs increased by 25.7%.
• Container freight rates rose by 4.0%.
• Global geopolitical risk increased by 64.5%.

Kearney distinguishes between two components of its forecast: underlying economic fundamentals and additional pressure associated with market sentiment and risk. This distinction is particularly relevant because geopolitical developments and logistics disruptions can push costs beyond what traditional economic indicators would otherwise suggest.

Rather than relying on a single cost projection, the report presents a range of potential outcomes, emphasizing the need for businesses to account for both baseline conditions and more volatile scenarios.

Mexico: Trade growth alongside a projected cost rebound

Mexico presents an interesting combination of trade growth and changing cost dynamics.

In Q1 2026, Mexico recorded a 6.5% decrease in supply chain costs. However, Kearney projects costs to increase by 4.5% by Q2 2027, representing a rebound from the lower starting point recorded during the first quarter.

Several indicators help explain this outlook:

International trade continues to expand.

• Imports increased by 4.1% in Q1 2026.
• Exports grew by 5.0% during the same period.

These figures indicate continued activity in Mexico’s international trade flows.

Labor and input costs are moving in different directions.

Mexico’s wage costs declined by 9.2% during the quarter, while fuel and electronics costs continued to increase. This divergence illustrates how different components of the supply chain can experience contrasting cost movements.

The projected 4.5% increase should therefore be understood in the context of the previous quarter’s decline, rather than interpreted simply as a continuation of an existing upward trend.

For businesses sourcing, manufacturing, or distributing products through Mexico, these developments make it particularly important to monitor changes in operating costs and international trade conditions.

United States: Higher freight costs and increasing geopolitical exposure

The United States faces a different cost environment, with increases across several supply chain indicators.

Kearney forecasts a 5.0% increase in US supply chain costs by Q2 2027.

During Q1 2026:

• Supply chain costs increased by 1.1%.
• Import values rose by 4.6%.
• Export values increased by 4.7%.
• Nonlabor input prices increased by 1.8%.
• Hourly earnings increased by 0.8%.

Higher freight rates, together with increases in fuel and chemical prices, added further pressure.

Freight costs are becoming an important concern.

Container rates increased by 6.8% during the quarter, representing the sharpest movement among the report’s highlighted fundamental indicators. Although rates remained 27% below their level a year earlier, the quarterly increase reversed a previously favorable trend.

Geopolitical risk is also increasing.

Kearney reports a 58.3% quarterly increase in geopolitical risk indicators for the United States. This was the largest movement among the report’s highlighted sentiment and risk indicators.

The manufacturing sector is experiencing additional pressure. Output increased by 5.5% on an annualized basis, but higher energy, materials, and export costs are accompanying that growth. Industrial-material import prices increased by 17.5% year over year.

Manufacturers are also reporting shortages in electronics, semiconductors, and hot-rolled steel.

These developments illustrate a challenging operating environment: industrial activity is expanding, but higher input costs and material availability concerns are creating additional complexity for supply chain management.

Canada: An important regional perspective, but no country-specific figures in this edition

Canada is an important part of the North American supply chain landscape. However, Kearney’s Q4 2026 briefing does not include a dedicated Canadian country analysis or specific Canadian cost, trade, labor, or freight projections.

The report’s country-level comparisons cover the United States, Mexico, China, India, and Germany.

Consequently, the global cost outlook and the broader energy, freight, and geopolitical risk indicators provide context for the international operating environment, but they should not be interpreted as direct measurements of Canadian supply chain conditions.

This distinction is important for companies evaluating North American operations: regional exposure needs to be assessed using country-specific information rather than assuming that the same cost movements apply equally across Canada, the United States, and Mexico.

What the findings mean for North American supply chains

Taken together, the Mexico and US findings demonstrate that supply chain cost pressures are not developing uniformly across markets.

Mexico experienced a decline in supply chain costs during Q1 2026, accompanied by increases in imports and exports. The United States, meanwhile, recorded rising costs, higher container rates, and increasing geopolitical exposure.

Despite these differences, both markets are subject to the broader uncertainties identified by Kearney, particularly energy prices, freight costs, and geopolitical developments.

The report identifies three priorities for businesses navigating this environment:

1. Protect operating continuity.

Rising freight and labor costs make it important to secure critical transportation and labor capacity, particularly where disruptions could interrupt operations or immediately affect margins.

2. Release working capital.

Kearney highlights increasing inventory values and receivables relative to sales across manufacturing, retail, and communications, media, and technology. Businesses should evaluate inventory requirements, outstanding payments, and the capital tied up in their operations.

3. Plan for cost volatility.

The projected global cost increase of 2.7%, with an upside scenario of 6.7%, illustrates why businesses should prepare for a range of possible outcomes. Kearney recommends assessing these scenarios by business unit, product, supplier, and customer rather than relying exclusively on an economy-wide forecast.

Looking ahead

Kearney’s Q4 2026 Supply Chain Navigator highlights an increasingly complex operating environment in which economic fundamentals, freight costs, and geopolitical developments are influencing supply chain performance.

For companies operating between Mexico and the United States, the findings reinforce the importance of monitoring market-specific cost movements and maintaining visibility into transportation and sourcing conditions.

Source: Kearney, Supply Chain Navigator | 2026 Q4: Supply chain costs rise across the board, geopolitical risk could push further. Kearney Foresight | Supply Chain Institute.