On October 1, 2025, the United States began its first government shutdown since 2018–2019, after Congress failed to reach a budget agreement. The political standoff between Republicans and Democrats has led to the partial suspension of government services and unpaid leave for around 750,000 federal employees.

Although essential services—such as border patrol, ICE agents, air traffic control, and hospital healthcare—continue to operate, the lack of administrative and support staff is already causing significant consequences for international trade and cross-border freight transportation.

Direct Impacts on Freight Transportation

1. Increased Congestion at Border Crossings
While CBP agents continue to work, the lack of administrative support is slowing procedures, leading to longer queues at ports of entry. This results in extended waiting times for carriers and added pressure on supply chains.

2. Paused Compliance Processes
Security-related procedures, including CTPAT, AEO, and various audits, have been temporarily suspended. This directly affects exporters and carriers who rely on these certifications to maintain regulatory compliance.

3. Reduced Support for Technology Systems
Key platforms such as ACE and e-Manifest (CBP 309) remain operational but with limited technical assistance. Any system issues may take longer to resolve, disrupting daily operations and electronic documentation for cross-border shipments.

4. Threats to Just-in-Time Supply Chains
Sectors like automotive, agro-exports, and electronics rely on precise delivery schedules. Additional delays at the border can lead to higher costs, missed deadlines, and potential production line interruptions.

5. Cross-Border Ripple Effects
Although Mexican processes continue normally, the reduced capacity on the U.S. side creates bottlenecks that impact logistics operations in both countries.

Economic and Political Context of the Shutdown

Government shutdowns are a recurring phenomenon in U.S. politics. Over the past 50 years, there have been more than 20 shutdowns, including:

• 2018–2019 (Trump): lasted 35 days, the longest in history, caused by disagreement over the border wall with Mexico. The CBO (Congressional Budget Office) estimated it reduced economic output by $11 billion, of which $3 billion was never recovered.

• 1995 (Clinton): 21 days of paralysis.

• 2013 (Obama): 16 days due to disputes over the Affordable Care Act.

• 1980s (Reagan): eight shutdowns, all shorter in duration.

These episodes stem from budget disputes and reflect the difficulty of the U.S. political system in reaching consensus.

Expected Economic Effects

The impact of the shutdown depends on its duration. Analysts estimate that each week of closure could reduce U.S. economic growth by 0.1–0.2 percentage points. While part of the activity usually recovers afterward, some losses are permanent (as in 2019).

Other factors to consider:

• Additional uncertainty: Suspension of key official data, such as the monthly employment report, affects business planning and investment decisions.

• Labor market: If temporary furloughs become permanent layoffs, the impact would be much more severe.

• Combined effect with tariffs and trade tensions: The U.S. economy was already affected by previous trade measures, amplifying vulnerability.

Logistically, these variables translate into higher operational costs, accumulated delays, and volatility in supply chains crossing the U.S.–Mexico border.

What Does This Mean for Freight Transport?

At Mexicom Group, we have received reports from our carriers confirming:

• Additional delays at border crossings.

• Increased costs associated with longer wait times.

• Operational strain on sensitive supply chains such as automotive, agro-exports, and electronics.

Although the shutdown does not close the border, it increases uncertainty and complicates logistics planning. In this context, companies should review their timelines, costs, and strategies to minimize impact on their supply chain.

At Mexicom Group, we will continue monitoring the situation and sharing updates with our clients, aiming to provide alternatives and maintain continuity in their operations.

Contact us

info@mexicomlogistics.com

Canada: +1 514 667 0174

USA: +1 (956) 516-7201

Mexico:+ 52 55 5695 3495

Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/crrj1znp0pyo