In 2026, manufacturers, logistics operators, and supply chain leaders across North America will face a complex environment — yet with emerging signs of stabilization. Macroeconomic dynamics, trade flows between Mexico, the U.S., and Canada, and freight transport costs converge to shape a landscape that demands strategic attention. Below are the key factors to monitor, their implications for freight transportation, and tactical recommendations for the first quarter of the year.

1. Macroeconomic Outlook

• According to Export Development Canada (EDC), Mexico’s economy is expected to grow by approximately 0.9% in 2025 and around 1.3% in 2026.
• In Canada and the U.S., the outlook remains moderate, with upward risks stemming from fiscal policy, tariffs, and redirected trade flows.
• Key risk factors include persistent inflation, rising import tariffs, transportation overcapacity, and the slow recovery of global trade.

Key implications:
Moderate economic growth limits the momentum for significant increases in freight volumes. Operators will need to manage expectations for flat or slow growth in transportation demand.

2. Freight Transportation and Shipping Costs

In the U.S. trucking market, C.H. Robinson projects a moderate increase in spot (“dry van”) rates for 2026 — approximately +2% year-over-year.
According to ACT Research, the trucking industry is entering 2026 on a more stable foundation but still characterized by fleet correction, order discipline, and slow demand recovery.

In cross-border trade (Mexico–U.S.), the LoadLink platform reported that in Canada, spot load volumes declined by 15–22% year-over-year in several months of 2025, suggesting that weak volume effects may persist early in 2026.

Implications for supply chains:

• Freight rates may rise slightly, but not sharply; the estimated +2% increase indicates continued margin pressure unless offset by efficiency gains.

• Excess trucking capacity creates opportunities for negotiation but also signals profitability challenges for carriers.

• Freight volumes are likely to remain flat or grow modestly, requiring route optimization, load consolidation, and greater efficiency.

3. Key Factors Shaping Q1 2026 in Logistics

a) Capacity and Fleet
With overcapacity in trucking, rates remain contained. However, as some companies retire or delay renewing Class 8 equipment, slight rate increases could occur if demand normalizes.

b) Mexico–U.S.–Canada Cross-Border Trade
The shift of supply chains from China toward Mexico continues to hold potential, though the impact on volumes remains gradual. The strong peso, origin-content adjustments, and emerging logistics corridors will play key roles.

c) Tariffs and International Trade
Tariff tensions remain a significant risk. New duties or retaliations could trigger inventory front-loading, distorting Q1 demand and creating temporary freight spikes followed by normalization.

d) Infrastructure and Alternative Modes
Pressure on intermodal, rail, and maritime transport continues to increase. With highway congestion rising, shippers may explore rail or multimodal solutions, which will require closer attention to more complex logistics chains.

4. Scenarios for the First Quarter of 2026

5. Key Drivers to Watch

Several factors will shape the freight landscape in early 2026:

• Trade policies and new customs measures under the USMCA framework.

• Infrastructure investments in highways and border crossings, particularly in Mexico’s northern region.

• Sustainability and electrification initiatives, especially in Canada and U.S. fleets.

• Digitalization and automation in logistics management systems and warehouses.

These trends suggest that companies investing in efficiency, visibility, and flexibility will be best positioned to capture early-year opportunities.

6. Strategic Takeaways for Supply Chain and Logistics Leaders

To navigate Q1 2026 effectively:

• Plan for stability, not stagnation. Moderate demand may mask sector-specific opportunities.

• Leverage warehousing and transloading near borders to speed up cross-border operations.

• Monitor policy updates affecting trade and transportation corridors.

• Invest in technology for visibility, forecasting, and resource optimization.

The start of 2026 may not bring explosive growth, but it marks a critical phase of consolidation and preparation for a more dynamic mid-year market.

References

• • C.H. Robinson – North America Truckload Freight Market Update (Aug 2025) chrobinson.com+2chrobinson.com+2

  • ACT Research – Trucking Industry Forecast for 2026 ACT Research+1

  • EDC – North America Economic Outlook Autumn 2025 edc.ca

  • Central 1 – Economic Analysis of Canada (Feb 25, 2025) central1.com