{"id":17689,"date":"2022-11-30T11:32:52","date_gmt":"2022-11-30T16:32:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/mexicomlogistics.com\/?p=17689"},"modified":"2022-12-30T10:02:15","modified_gmt":"2022-12-30T15:02:15","slug":"evolucion-y-pronostico-de-las-tarifas-de-transporte-de-carga-para-el-2023","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/mexicomlogistics.com\/es\/evolucion-y-pronostico-de-las-tarifas-de-transporte-de-carga-para-el-2023\/","title":{"rendered":"Evoluci\u00f3n y Pron\u00f3stico de las Tarifas de Transporte de carga para el 2023"},"content":{"rendered":"
[vc_row][vc_column][vc_empty_space][vc_empty_space][vc_column_text css=\u00bb.vc_custom_1669828204533{margin-bottom: 0px !important;}\u00bb]Para los embarcadores de cargas internacionales entre M\u00e9xico, Estados Unidos y Canad\u00e1 es prudente contemplar la evoluci\u00f3n y el pron\u00f3stico de las tarifas de Transporte de carga en 2023, ya que algunos transportistas ya est\u00e1n negociando contratos de flete que se extienden por dos o tres a\u00f1os.<\/span><\/p>\n

En el <\/span>ciclo econ\u00f3mico del transporte de carga<\/span><\/a>,\u00a0 el mercado de transporte de carga est\u00e1 equilibrado y durante varios meses se ha visto un exceso de oferta que se incrementar\u00e1 a corto plazo. <\/span>Para el 2023, la recomendaci\u00f3n para los embarcadores es preparar la estrategia para el avance hacia la pr\u00f3xima fase del ciclo econ\u00f3mico, desarrollando el upcycle.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

La mayor parte de los transportistas conf\u00eda que en 2023 su cronograma vuelva a niveles previos a la pandemia. Sin embargo, en los \u00faltimos dos a\u00f1os, los transportistas tambi\u00e9n han aprendido que muchas compa\u00f1\u00edas son capaces de pagar miles de d\u00f3lares m\u00e1s que antes de 2020. Grandes jugadores de las cadenas de suministro, propietarios de carga,\u00a0 como Walmart, Home Depot, Target, etc, demuestran resultados comerciales espectaculares desde 2021 a pesar de los problemas que se presentaron en la cadena de suministro. Estas empresas representan una gran proporci\u00f3n de la capacidad de los transportistas, por lo que tienen pocos incentivos para bajar las tarifas por debajo de los niveles que ellos pagan.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Durante la pandemia y en especial el \u00faltimo a\u00f1o, ha continuado la tendencia al r\u00e1pido surgimiento de nuevas empresas transportistas, m\u00e1s peque\u00f1as,\u00a0 que incursionan en el mercado de servicios de transporte de carga. Sin embargo, ahora que estamos volviendo a la normalidad y las tasas empiecen a bajar, es probable que muchos de los reci\u00e9n llegados dejen de ser rentables y abandonen el mercado. Recordemos que lo mismo sucedi\u00f3 en 2010, posterior a la crisis de 2008, el mercado del transporte de carga repunt\u00f3, pero todos estos servicios desaparecieron cuando termin\u00f3 la tendencia creciente.<\/span><\/p>\n

Por su parte, los propietarios-operadores se enfrentan a unos precios al contado muy cerrados, combustible continuamente elevados y un n\u00famero bajo de cargas en el mercado al contado.<\/span>[\/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][vc_single_image image=\u00bb17724″ img_size=\u00bbfull\u00bb][vc_empty_space][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_column_text css=\u00bb.vc_custom_1669824107564{margin-bottom: 0px !important;}\u00bb]\n

\u00bfCu\u00e1l ha sido la evoluci\u00f3n reciente de las tarifas?<\/span><\/h2>\n

La tarifa promedio\u00a0 en Estados Unidos para mover carga seca y refrigerada spot cay\u00f3 por s\u00e9ptimo mes consecutivo en agosto.<\/span><\/p>\n

La tarifa de la cajas secas al contado cay\u00f3 11 centavos a $2.52 por milla en el mes, mientras que la tarifa de los frigor\u00edficos baj\u00f3 10 centavos a $2.89 por milla. La tarifa spot promedio para el flete de plataforma tambi\u00e9n se desplom\u00f3 (24 centavos a $3.05 por milla en agosto) y estuvo 40 centavos por debajo del m\u00e1ximo hist\u00f3rico establecido en marzo, inform\u00f3 DAT.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

\n

\u201cEl fuerte retroceso en los precios al contado es lo que ha preocupado tanto a la gente, y si observa las tarifas impl\u00edcitas de transporte de larga distancia, la disminuci\u00f3n es a\u00fan m\u00e1s pronunciada porque esta tarifa total est\u00e1 respaldada por precios m\u00e1s altos del combustible\u201d, explic\u00f3 Jason Miller, profesor asociado de gesti\u00f3n de la cadena de suministro en la Facultad de Negocios Eli Broad de la Universidad Estatal de Michigan<\/span><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n

Miller prev\u00e9 que la guerra entre Rusia y Ucrania estimular\u00e1 una mayor producci\u00f3n de energ\u00eda en los EE. UU., y que el sector energ\u00e9tico de los EE. UU. se beneficiar\u00e1\u00a0 a largo plazo\u00a0 a medida que Europa se aleje de la producci\u00f3n de petr\u00f3leo proveniente de Rusia.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Otro punto\u00a0 coyuntural es\u00a0 que los ferroviarios no han concluido a\u00fan sus negociaciones contractuales, por un contrato que expir\u00f3 en 2020. La propuesta dela Junta Presidencial de Emergencia es el aumento del 22% gradualmente en cinco a\u00f1os. Pero esto\u00a0 no s\u00f3lo impactar\u00eda en el sector ferroviario, sino que el aumento se reflejar\u00e1 en tarifas intermodales m\u00e1s altas y es aqu\u00ed donde se mueve una gran cantidad carga consolidada.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ya hemos visto que el servicio consolidado ha aumentado sus costos operativos a trav\u00e9s de los \u00faltimos a\u00f1os: los costos crecientes de operadores,\u00a0 el alto precio del combustible y\u00a0 el aumento en los seguros\u00a0 han sido los factores\u00a0 principales del aumento de los costos.\u00a0<\/span>[\/vc_column_text][vc_empty_space][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][vc_empty_space][vc_empty_space][vc_column_text css=\u00bb.vc_custom_1669827035064{margin-bottom: 0px !important;}\u00bb]\n

\u00bfQu\u00e9 esperamos para 2023 en el transporte de carga?<\/span><\/h2>\n

 <\/p>\n

    \n
  • El crecimiento del volumen de mercanc\u00edas es de entre el -4 al 1%, seguir\u00e1 habiendo un exceso de oferta de\u00a0 servicios de transporte de carga.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Por consecuencia, los transportistas har\u00e1n un balance del mercado y aplazar\u00e1n la compra de nuevos equipos.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Una recesi\u00f3n de camiones es una disminuci\u00f3n de la actividad industrial que reduce los vol\u00famenes de carga<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Los aumentos dr\u00e1sticos en la deuda de las tarjetas de cr\u00e9dito del consumidor impactar\u00e1 en que las personas gastar\u00e1n menos.\u00a0<\/span><\/li>\n
  • Habr\u00e1 una ca\u00edda en la construcci\u00f3n, que reducir\u00e1 la demanda de transporte,\u00a0 debido a que la demanda de transporte, sobre todo de plataformas,\u00a0 depende del mercado inmobiliario para el transporte de materiales de construcci\u00f3n. <\/span><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n[\/vc_column_text][vc_column_text css=\u00bb.vc_custom_1672412187105{margin-bottom: 0px !important;}\u00bb]Fuentes y cr\u00e9ditos:<\/p>\n

    Con la colaboraci\u00f3n de Yohany Soriano\u00a0<\/strong><\/p>\n

    https:\/\/www.chrobinson.com\/es-mx\/resources\/insights-and-advisories\/north-america-freight-insights\/https:\/\/blog.tranzact.com\/2-minute-warning\/what-to-consider-when-building-a-2023-freight-budgethttps:\/\/www.morethanshipping.com\/2023-and-beyond-what-to-expect-for-shipping-rates-and-deliverability\/https:\/\/www.fleetowner.com\/news\/economics\/article\/21252390\/analyst-takes-neutral-stance-on-likelihood-of-2023-trucking-recession<\/p>\n

     [\/vc_column_text][\/vc_column][\/vc_row][vc_row][vc_column][mk_button corner_style=\u00bbfull_rounded\u00bb size=\u00bblarge\u00bb url=\u00bbhttps:\/\/mexicomlogistics.com\/es\/solicitar-cotizacion-elegir-tipo\/\u00bb align=\u00bbcenter\u00bb bg_color=\u00bb#e21119″]Solicita una Cotizaci\u00f3n[\/mk_button][\/vc_column][\/vc_row]\n<\/div>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    [vc_row][vc_column][vc_empty_space][vc_empty_space][vc_column_text css=\u00bb.vc_custom_1669828204533{margin-bottom: 0px !important;}\u00bb]Para los embarcadores de cargas internacionales entre M\u00e9xico, Estados Unidos y Canad\u00e1 es prudente contemplar la evoluci\u00f3n y el pron\u00f3stico de las tarifas de Transporte de carga en 2023, ya que algunos transportistas ya est\u00e1n negociando contratos de flete que se extienden por dos o tres a\u00f1os. En el ciclo econ\u00f3mico del […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":17719,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"content-type":"","jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[59,85,95,364,393,87,57,38,28,89],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-17689","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-business","category-freight-es","category-infographic-es","category-negocios","category-news-es","category-supply-chain-logistics-2-es","category-supply-chain-logistics","category-transporte-de-carga","category-trucking","category-trucking-2-es"],"yoast_head":"\nEvoluci\u00f3n y Pron\u00f3stico de las Tarifas de Transporte de carga para el 2023 - Mexicom Logistics<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/mexicomlogistics.com\/es\/evolucion-y-pronostico-de-las-tarifas-de-transporte-de-carga-para-el-2023\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"es_ES\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Evoluci\u00f3n y Pron\u00f3stico de las Tarifas de Transporte de carga para el 2023 - Mexicom Logistics\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"[vc_row][vc_column][vc_empty_space][vc_empty_space][vc_column_text css=\u00bb.vc_custom_1669828204533{margin-bottom: 0px !important;}\u00bb]Para los embarcadores de cargas internacionales entre M\u00e9xico, Estados Unidos y Canad\u00e1 es prudente contemplar la evoluci\u00f3n y el pron\u00f3stico de las tarifas de Transporte de carga en 2023, ya que algunos transportistas ya est\u00e1n negociando contratos de flete que se extienden por dos o tres a\u00f1os. 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